Market update
EUR/USD
The FOMC statement had a large impact on the EUR/USD pair last week, with the eventual announcement producing a low of 1.0900, with the rate previously moving within the 1.1000 / 1.1100 range. The report hinted that a December rate rise is still possible, strengthening the dollar initially. Flat GDP figures ultimately saw a return to 1.1000 however.
Data from Asia pushed USD higher early this week, but there are more key announcements to look out for. Manufacturing updates are already influencing markets – US figures will do likewise (Mon). The European Central Bank President, Mario Draghi will be speaking at the ECB forum on Wednesday. His statement is likely to influence sentiment on the Euro, with traders as jittery as ever. Towards the end of the week, non-farm employment data will be released – this will be monitored closely after the drop last month.
GBP/USD
US PCE price index data came in lower than expected last week, causing a rise to 1.5460 in the pair. A possible rate rise remains the main driver of USD currency pairs and the price index was seen as an indicator of possible inflation, and therefore an influence on the decision. This week, both the US and UK release data that will nudge the value one way or the other; As mentioned above, non-farm employment data is released in the US on Friday, but on Thursday the Bank of England report on their own interest rate and announce the current levels of inflation. A rate change is not expected, but the result of the vote will be analysed to judge the sentiment among the panel.
GOLD
Gold remains in flux, with the “safe haven” tag not translating into any sort of stability at present. Again, the FOMC statement impacted values and gold swung from $1,182.5 to $1,140 per ounce. Recoveries in stock values could also weigh heavy on Gold – US labour data is likely to be the driver for any significant stock rise. Commodities in general are suffering from the demand slowdown from China, so economic updates from across Asia will be analysed with that in mind.
Economics events calendar (All times GMT):
|
2:30pm |
CAD |
RBC Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
2:45pm |
USD |
Final Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
Construction Spending m/m |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
ISM Manufacturing Prices |
|
|
5:00pm |
USD |
FOMC Member Williams Speaks |
|
|
3/11/2015 |
All Day |
JPY |
Bank Holiday |
|
12:00am |
NZD |
ANZ Commodity Prices m/m |
|
|
3:30am |
AUD |
Cash Rate |
|
|
8:00am |
EUR |
Spanish Unemployment Change |
|
|
9:30am |
GBP |
Construction PMI |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
Factory Orders m/m |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism |
|
|
All Day |
USD |
Total Vehicle Sales |
|
|
7:00pm |
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
11:50pm |
JPY |
Monetary Base y/y |
|
|
4/11/2015 |
12:01am |
GBP |
BRC Shop Price Index y/y |
|
12:30am |
AUD |
Retail Sales m/m |
|
|
12:30am |
AUD |
Trade Balance |
|
|
1:45am |
CNY |
Caixin Services PMI |
|
|
5:00am |
JPY |
Consumer Confidence |
|
|
8:15am |
EUR |
Spanish Services PMI |
|
|
8:45am |
EUR |
Italian Services PMI |
|
|
8:50am |
EUR |
French Final Services PMI |
|
|
8:55am |
EUR |
German Final Services PMI |
|
|
9:00am |
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
9:00am |
EUR |
Final Services PMI |
|
|
9:30am |
GBP |
Services PMI |
|
|
10:00am |
EUR |
PPI m/m |
|
|
10:30am |
USD |
FOMC Member Brainard Speaks |
|
|
1:15pm |
USD |
ADP Non-Farm Employment Change |
|
|
1:30pm |
CAD |
Trade Balance |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Trade Balance |
|
|
2:45pm |
USD |
Final Services PMI |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
Fed Chair Yellen Testifies |
|
|
3:00pm |
USD |
ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI |
|
|
3:30pm |
USD |
Crude Oil Inventories |
|
|
7:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
|
|
10:25pm |
AUD |
RBA Gov Stevens Speaks |
|
|
11:50pm |
JPY |
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
5/11/2015 |
12:30am |
USD |
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks |
|
7:00am |
EUR |
German Factory Orders m/m |
|
|
8:15am |
CHF |
CPI m/m |
|
|
9:00am |
EUR |
ECB Economic Bulletin |
|
|
9:10am |
EUR |
Retail PMI |
|
|
10:00am |
EUR |
EU Economic Forecasts |
|
|
10:00am |
EUR |
Retail Sales m/m |
|
|
11:45am |
EUR |
ECB President Draghi Speaks |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
BOE Inflation Report |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
MPC Official Bank Rate Votes |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
Monetary Policy Summary |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
Official Bank Rate |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
Asset Purchase Facility |
|
|
12:00pm |
GBP |
MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes |
|
|
12:30pm |
USD |
Challenger Job Cuts y/y |
|
|
12:45pm |
GBP |
BOE Gov Carney Speaks |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Claims |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Member Dudley Speaks |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q |
|
|
2:10pm |
USD |
FOMC Member Fischer Speaks |
|
|
6:30pm |
USD |
FOMC Member Lockhart Speaks |
|
|
10:30pm |
AUD |
AIG Construction Index |
|
|
6/11/2015 |
12:30am |
AUD |
RBA Monetary Policy Statement |
|
5:00am |
JPY |
Leading Indicators |
|
|
7:00am |
EUR |
German Industrial Production m/m |
|
|
7:45am |
EUR |
French Gov Budget Balance |
|
|
7:45am |
EUR |
French Trade Balance |
|
|
8:00am |
CHF |
Foreign Currency Reserves |
|
|
9:30am |
GBP |
Manufacturing Production m/m |
|
|
9:30am |
GBP |
Trade Balance |
|
|
9:30am |
GBP |
Industrial Production m/m |
|
|
1:30pm |
CAD |
Employment Change |
|
|
1:30pm |
CAD |
Unemployment Rate |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Non-Farm Employment Change |
|
|
1:30pm |
USD |
Unemployment Rate |